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The analysts at New Street expect the auction to end in September, or possibly October. However, "few of those operators have the resources to compete with T-Mobile." "T-Mobile's hottest competition for these licenses could actually come from small WISPs who could use a specific license," wrote the New Street analysts. And, as noted by FierceWireless, it successfully petitioned the FCC to craft the Auction 108 rules that it wanted. T-Mobile has already shown interest in buying additional 2.5GHz licenses. That would leave 2.5GHz winners with licenses that they would then have to build out or sell. While some observers believe companies like Verizon and Dish might bid in Auction 108 just to raise final prices for T-Mobile, that strategy would be risky if T-Mobile doesn't rise to the challenge. Further, Verizon, AT&T and Dish have already spent heavily in other auctions, which will likely dampen their interest in Auction 108. That means a company that wins 2.5GHz licenses would have to deploy entirely new networking equipment to take advantage of 2.5GHz spectrum licenses, which is a costly endeavor.
All other operators – from Dish to Verizon – are investing in other spectrum bands. There is evidence to support that theory.įirst, T-Mobile is the only major operator building a 5G network in 2.5GHz licenses. Virtually every analyst in the industry agrees that T-Mobile will walk away from Auction 108 as the big winner. "We would guess they are sitting out of the auction because the only national carrier who would buy the spectrum in the secondary market is T-Mobile, limiting the likelihood that the investors can extract a significant premium in the resale," speculated the New Street analysts. Investment companies like Columbia Capital and Grain Management – which have participated in other recent spectrum auctions – are also missing from the lineup of Auction 108 bidders. That likely means they have no interest in building their own widespread 5G networks. However, two important groups are missing from the lineup of potential 2.5GHz bidders: cable companies and investment firms.Ĭable operators like Comcast and Charter Communications have participated in some 5G spectrum auctions, but none of the recent ones.
So did a number of smaller telecom operators like Carolina West Wireless, Cellular South Wireless, Copper Valley Wireless, Granite Wireless, Nex-Tech Wireless, Nsight and Union Telephone Company.
However, most of those licenses are scattered haphazardly in primarily rural areas.Īs noted by RCR Wireless News, AT&T, Verizon, T-Mobile and Dish Network all registered to bid in the auction. With that as context, here's what to expect from the FCC's Auction 108, which is scheduled for a first round of bidding later today:Įarlier this month, the FCC unveiled its final lineup of the 82 qualified bidders for Auction 108, which will release roughly 8,000 spectrum licenses all around the country in the 2.5GHz band.
The high end of the firm's forecasts reaches just $5 billion in total bids. For example, the financial analysts at New Street Research warned investors that the auction might end with just $1.4 billion in total bids. (Source: Philipp Dimitri / Westend61 GmbH / Alamy Stock Photo)īut most analysts are moderating their expectations for Auction 108, to put it mildly.